UN: AI to Disrupt 40% of Jobs, Widen Global Inequality

The global artificial intelligence (AI) market is on track to reach a staggering $4.8 trillion by 2033—roughly equivalent to the size of Germany's economy—according to a new report released Thursday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). While AI is reshaping global economies and generating vast opportunities for innovation and productivity, the report warns that it also threatens to deepen existing socioeconomic inequalities and disrupt nearly half of the world's jobs.

UNCTAD’s findings suggest that up to 40 percent of jobs across the globe could be affected by the rise of AI. This seismic shift brings the promise of productivity gains, but it also raises serious concerns about automation and the displacement of human workers. Unlike previous technological revolutions that primarily disrupted blue-collar employment, this new wave of AI advancement is expected to most heavily impact knowledge-intensive sectors, thereby posing a greater risk to white-collar workers in advanced economies.

Advanced economies may be the hardest hit due to their larger share of knowledge-based industries. However, these countries are also better positioned to capitalize on AI’s benefits through their stronger infrastructure, deeper talent pools, and more robust innovation ecosystems. On the flip side, developing economies that traditionally relied on low-cost labor to maintain a competitive edge may find that edge dulled as AI-driven automation increasingly favors capital over labor.

UNCTAD warns that this shift could exacerbate global income inequality and reduce the relative advantage of low-wage countries, creating a new digital divide. Access to AI tools, infrastructure, and expertise remains highly concentrated: just 100 companies—mostly based in the United States and China—account for 40 percent of all corporate research and development spending in AI worldwide.

The report calls for immediate and inclusive global action. UNCTAD urges countries to invest in digital infrastructure, build local capabilities, and enhance AI governance frameworks to fully harness the potential of the technology for sustainable development. It also emphasizes that AI must not be viewed solely as a job-killer. Instead, it presents an opportunity to develop new industries and empower workers, provided there is adequate investment in workforce reskilling, upskilling, and adaptation.

Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD, emphasized the importance of keeping people at the center of AI development. She advocates for stronger international collaboration to co-create a global framework that ensures the benefits of AI are equitably shared. “History has shown that while technological progress drives economic growth, it does not on its own ensure equitable income distribution or promote inclusive human development,” Grynspan cautioned in the report.

In 2023, frontier technologies—including AI, the internet, blockchain, 5G, and 3D printing—represented a market worth $2.5 trillion. This is expected to increase more than sixfold in the next decade, reaching $16.4 trillion. By 2033, AI alone is projected to dominate this technological frontier, accounting for $4.8 trillion of that total market value.

Despite the magnitude of AI's growing influence, UNCTAD points out that 118 countries—mostly in the Global South—are currently not participating in major global discussions on AI governance. As international regulatory and ethical frameworks for AI take shape, the UN agency insists it is essential for developing nations to have a seat at the table.

Otherwise, there is a real risk that the development and deployment of AI will reflect the interests of only a few powerful economies, further entrenching global disparities.

“AI is shaping the world's economic future,” the report concludes. “Countries should act now. By investing in digital infrastructure, building capabilities, and strengthening AI governance, they can harness the AI potential for sustainable development.”